Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -65.6 pts to -60.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -56.0 pts to -51.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -46.5 pts to -41.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -36.9 pts to -32.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.3 pts to -22.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -17.8 pts to -13.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -8.2 pts to -3.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 6.2 pts | 10.7% |
| 11.0 pts to 15.7 pts | 5.4% |
| 20.5 pts to 25.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 30.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NV-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +17.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026