Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -2.7 pts | 0.4% |
| 0.2 pts to 3.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 6.1 pts to 9.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.9 pts to 14.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.8 pts to 20.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.7 pts to 26.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.5 pts to 32.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.4 pts to 38.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.2 pts to 44.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.1 pts to 50.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.9 pts to 55.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NV-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 86.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +7.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +26.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026