Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 2.5 pts to 5.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.3 pts to 11.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.1 pts to 17.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.9 pts to 22.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.7 pts to 28.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.5 pts to 34.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.3 pts to 40.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.1 pts to 46.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.9 pts to 51.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.7 pts to 57.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.5 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NM-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 89.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +12.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +31.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026