Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -227 pts to -200 pts | 1.2% |
| -173 pts to -146 pts | 3.5% |
| -118 pts to -91.0 pts | 7.9% |
| -63.7 pts to -36.4 pts | 13.7% |
| -9.2 pts | 8.9% |
| 18.1 pts to 45.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.6 pts to 99.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 127 pts to 154 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 182 pts to 209 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 236 pts to 264 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 291 pts to 318 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-12 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 78.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +25.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +45.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026