Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -236 pts to -208 pts | 1.2% |
| -181 pts to -154 pts | 3.5% |
| -127 pts to -99.7 pts | 7.9% |
| -72.5 pts to -45.3 pts | 13.7% |
| -18.1 pts | 8.9% |
| 9.1 pts to 36.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.5 pts to 90.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 118 pts to 145 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 172 pts to 199 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 227 pts to 254 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 281 pts to 308 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 72.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +15.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +36.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026