Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -215 pts to -187 pts | 1.2% |
| -160 pts to -133 pts | 3.5% |
| -106 pts to -78.7 pts | 7.9% |
| -51.4 pts to -24.2 pts | 13.7% |
| 3.0 pts to 30.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.4 pts to 84.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 112 pts to 139 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 166 pts to 193 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 221 pts to 248 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 275 pts to 302 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 329 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 83.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +54.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +57.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026