Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -223 pts to -196 pts | 1.2% |
| -169 pts to -142 pts | 3.5% |
| -115 pts to -87.6 pts | 7.9% |
| -60.5 pts to -33.3 pts | 13.7% |
| -6.1 pts | 8.9% |
| 21.0 pts to 48.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.4 pts to 103 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 130 pts to 157 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 184 pts to 211 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 238 pts to 266 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 293 pts to 320 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 79.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +26.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +48.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026