Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -265 pts to -238 pts | 1.2% |
| -211 pts to -183 pts | 3.5% |
| -156 pts to -129 pts | 7.9% |
| -102 pts to -74.8 pts | 13.7% |
| -47.7 pts to -20.5 pts | 18.6% |
| 6.6 pts to 33.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.0 pts to 88.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 115 pts to 142 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 170 pts to 197 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 224 pts to 251 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 278 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 51.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +5.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +6.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026