Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -233 pts to -206 pts | 1.2% |
| -179 pts to -151 pts | 3.5% |
| -124 pts to -97.0 pts | 7.9% |
| -69.9 pts to -42.7 pts | 13.7% |
| -15.6 pts | 8.9% |
| 11.6 pts to 38.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.9 pts to 93.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 120 pts to 147 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 175 pts to 202 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 229 pts to 256 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 283 pts to 310 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 73.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +16.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +38.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026