Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -238 pts to -211 pts | 1.2% |
| -184 pts to -157 pts | 3.5% |
| -130 pts to -103 pts | 7.9% |
| -75.4 pts to -48.3 pts | 13.7% |
| -21.1 pts | 8.9% |
| 6.1 pts to 33.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.4 pts to 87.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 115 pts to 142 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 169 pts to 196 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 223 pts to 250 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 278 pts to 305 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 70.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +11.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +33.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026