Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -289 pts to -262 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -234 pts to -207 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -180 pts to -152 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -125 pts to -97.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -70.0 pts to -42.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -15.2 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 12.2 pts to 39.6 pts | 18.6% |
| 67.0 pts to 94.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 122 pts to 149 pts | 7.9% |
| 177 pts to 204 pts | 3.5% |
| 231 pts to 259 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · NJ-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 32.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +36.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +15.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±140.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026