Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -241 pts to -214 pts | 1.2% |
| -187 pts to -160 pts | 3.5% |
| -133 pts to -105 pts | 7.9% |
| -78.3 pts to -51.1 pts | 13.7% |
| -24.0 pts | 8.9% |
| 3.2 pts to 30.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.5 pts to 84.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 112 pts to 139 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 166 pts to 193 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 220 pts to 248 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 275 pts to 302 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 68.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +8.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +30.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026