Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -277 pts to -250 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -223 pts to -195 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -168 pts to -141 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -114 pts to -86.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -59.3 pts to -32.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -4.8 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 22.4 pts to 49.6 pts | 18.6% |
| 76.8 pts to 104 pts | 13.7% |
| 131 pts to 159 pts | 7.9% |
| 186 pts to 213 pts | 3.5% |
| 240 pts to 267 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · NJ-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 40.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +17.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +4.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026