Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -230 pts to -203 pts | 1.2% |
| -176 pts to -149 pts | 3.5% |
| -122 pts to -94.4 pts | 7.9% |
| -67.2 pts to -40.0 pts | 13.7% |
| -12.9 pts | 8.9% |
| 14.3 pts to 41.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.6 pts to 95.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 123 pts to 150 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 177 pts to 204 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 232 pts to 259 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 286 pts to 313 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NJ-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 75.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +18.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +41.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026