Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -4.3 pts | 0.4% |
| -1.3 pts | 0.8% |
| 1.7 pts to 4.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.8 pts to 10.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.8 pts to 16.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.9 pts to 22.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.9 pts to 29.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.0 pts to 35.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.0 pts to 41.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.1 pts to 47.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.1 pts to 53.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NH-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 86.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +8.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +25.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026