Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -56.7 pts to -53.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -50.9 pts to -48.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -45.1 pts to -42.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.4 pts to -36.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -33.6 pts to -30.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -27.8 pts to -24.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -22.0 pts to -19.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -16.3 pts to -13.4 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.5 pts to -7.6 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -4.7 pts to -1.8 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 1.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NE-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +60.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +27.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026