Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -28.2 pts to -24.1 pts | 1.2% |
| -20.1 pts to -16.0 pts | 3.5% |
| -11.9 pts to -7.9 pts | 7.9% |
| -3.8 pts | 6.1% |
| 0.3 pts to 4.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.4 pts to 12.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.6 pts to 20.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.7 pts to 28.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.8 pts to 36.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.0 pts to 45.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.1 pts to 53.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NE-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 71.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +1.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +12.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±20.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026