Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -43.0 pts to -40.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -37.4 pts to -34.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -31.7 pts to -28.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -26.1 pts to -23.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.5 pts to -17.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -14.9 pts to -12.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -9.2 pts to -6.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -3.6 pts to -0.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.0 pts to 4.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 7.6 pts to 10.5 pts | 2.2% |
| 13.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NE-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 15.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +14.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026