Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -59.7 pts to -56.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -54.1 pts to -51.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -48.5 pts to -45.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -42.8 pts to -40.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -37.2 pts to -34.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -31.6 pts to -28.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -26.0 pts to -23.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -20.3 pts to -17.5 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -14.7 pts to -11.9 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -9.1 pts to -6.3 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -3.5 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · ND-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +39.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +31.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026