Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -32.5 pts to -29.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -26.8 pts to -24.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -21.2 pts to -18.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -15.6 pts to -12.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.0 pts to -7.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -4.3 pts to -1.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 1.3 pts to 4.1 pts | 16.5% |
| 6.9 pts to 9.7 pts | 10.7% |
| 12.5 pts to 15.4 pts | 5.4% |
| 18.2 pts to 21.0 pts | 2.2% |
| 23.8 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-14 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 31.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +16.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +4.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026