Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -33.6 pts to -30.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -28.0 pts to -25.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.4 pts to -19.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -16.7 pts to -13.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -11.1 pts to -8.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -5.4 pts to -2.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 0.2 pts to 3.0 pts | 16.5% |
| 5.8 pts to 8.6 pts | 10.7% |
| 11.5 pts to 14.3 pts | 5.4% |
| 17.1 pts to 19.9 pts | 2.2% |
| 22.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-13 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 28.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +17.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +5.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026