Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 8.7 pts to 13.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.2 pts to 23.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.7 pts to 32.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.2 pts to 42.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.7 pts to 51.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.3 pts to 61.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.8 pts to 70.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.3 pts to 80.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.8 pts to 89.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 94.3 pts to 99.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 104 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NC-12 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +48.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +56.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026