Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -32.6 pts to -29.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -26.9 pts to -24.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -21.3 pts to -18.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -15.7 pts to -12.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.1 pts to -7.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -4.4 pts to -1.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 1.2 pts to 4.0 pts | 16.5% |
| 6.8 pts to 9.6 pts | 10.7% |
| 12.4 pts to 15.2 pts | 5.4% |
| 18.1 pts to 20.9 pts | 2.2% |
| 23.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-11 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 32.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +13.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +4.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026