Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -40.1 pts to -37.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -34.4 pts to -31.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -28.7 pts to -25.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -23.0 pts to -20.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -17.4 pts to -14.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -11.7 pts to -8.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -6.0 pts to -3.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -0.3 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.5 pts to 5.4 pts | 7.9% |
| 8.2 pts to 11.0 pts | 3.5% |
| 13.9 pts to 16.7 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · NC-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 17.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +11.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026