Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -37.6 pts to -34.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -32.0 pts to -29.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -26.3 pts to -23.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -20.6 pts to -17.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -14.9 pts to -12.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -9.3 pts to -6.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -3.6 pts to -0.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 4.9 pts | 10.7% |
| 7.8 pts to 10.6 pts | 5.4% |
| 13.4 pts to 16.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 19.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 20.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +19.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +9.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026