Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -39.2 pts to -36.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -33.6 pts to -30.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -27.9 pts to -25.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -22.2 pts to -19.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -16.6 pts to -13.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -10.9 pts to -8.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.3 pts to -2.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 0.4 pts to 3.2 pts | 10.7% |
| 6.1 pts to 8.9 pts | 5.4% |
| 11.7 pts to 14.6 pts | 2.2% |
| 17.4 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 18.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +19.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +10.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026