Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -66.7 pts to -62.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -57.7 pts to -53.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -48.7 pts to -44.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.7 pts to -35.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -30.7 pts to -26.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -21.7 pts to -17.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -12.6 pts to -8.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -3.6 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 0.9 pts to 5.4 pts | 7.9% |
| 9.9 pts to 14.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 18.9 pts to 23.4 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · NC-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +21.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026