Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -38.3 pts to -35.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -32.7 pts to -29.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -27.0 pts to -24.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -21.4 pts to -18.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -15.7 pts to -12.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -10.0 pts to -7.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -4.4 pts to -1.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 1.3 pts to 4.1 pts | 10.7% |
| 6.9 pts to 9.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 12.6 pts to 15.4 pts | 2.2% |
| 18.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 20.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +18.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +10.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026