Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 9.0 pts to 13.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.5 pts to 23.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.0 pts to 32.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.5 pts to 42.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.0 pts to 51.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.5 pts to 61.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.0 pts to 70.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.5 pts to 80.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.0 pts to 89.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 94.5 pts to 99.3 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 104 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NC-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +46.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +56.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026