Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -68.7 pts to -64.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -59.7 pts to -55.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -50.7 pts to -46.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -41.7 pts to -37.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -32.7 pts to -28.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -23.7 pts to -19.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -14.7 pts to -10.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -5.7 pts to -1.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 3.3 pts to 7.8 pts | 5.4% |
| 12.3 pts to 16.8 pts | 2.2% |
| 21.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · NC-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +23.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026