Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 5.5 pts to 10.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.0 pts to 19.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.5 pts to 29.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.0 pts to 38.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.5 pts to 48.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.0 pts to 57.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.5 pts to 67.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.0 pts to 76.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.5 pts to 86.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.0 pts to 95.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 101 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NC-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +35.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +53.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026