Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -47.0 pts to -44.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.4 pts to -38.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -35.8 pts to -32.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.1 pts to -27.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.5 pts to -21.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -18.9 pts to -16.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -13.2 pts to -10.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -7.6 pts to -4.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.0 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.9 pts to 3.7 pts | 3.5% |
| 6.5 pts to 9.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MT-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 10.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +32.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +18.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026