Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -24.5 pts to -21.2 pts | 1.2% |
| -17.8 pts to -14.5 pts | 3.5% |
| -11.2 pts to -7.9 pts | 7.9% |
| -4.6 pts to -1.3 pts | 13.7% |
| 2.0 pts to 5.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.6 pts to 11.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.3 pts to 18.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.9 pts to 25.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.5 pts to 31.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.1 pts to 38.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.7 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MT-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 65% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +7.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +8.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026