Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -57.0 pts to -54.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -51.3 pts to -48.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -45.6 pts to -42.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.8 pts to -37.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -34.1 pts to -31.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -28.4 pts to -25.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -22.6 pts to -19.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -16.9 pts to -14.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -11.2 pts to -8.3 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -5.4 pts to -2.6 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 0.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MS-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +47.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +28.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026