Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -5.9 pts | 0.4% |
| -1.2 pts | 0.8% |
| 3.6 pts to 8.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.1 pts to 17.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.6 pts to 27.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.1 pts to 36.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.6 pts to 46.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.1 pts to 55.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.6 pts to 65.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.1 pts to 74.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.6 pts to 84.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MS-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +24.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +41.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026