Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.2 pts to -52.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.5 pts to -46.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -43.8 pts to -40.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -38.1 pts to -35.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -32.4 pts to -29.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -26.7 pts to -23.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.1 pts to -18.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -15.4 pts to -12.5 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.7 pts to -6.9 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -4.0 pts to -1.2 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 1.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MS-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +39.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +26.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026