Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -57.4 pts to -54.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -51.4 pts to -48.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -45.4 pts to -42.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -39.3 pts to -36.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -33.3 pts to -30.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -27.3 pts to -24.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.3 pts to -18.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -15.2 pts to -12.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.2 pts to -6.2 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -3.2 pts to -0.2 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 2.8 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MO-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +55.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +27.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026