Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -61.8 pts to -57.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -53.3 pts to -49.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -44.7 pts to -40.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -36.1 pts to -31.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.6 pts to -23.3 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.0 pts to -14.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -10.4 pts to -6.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.9 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.4 pts to 6.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 11.0 pts to 15.3 pts | 3.5% |
| 19.5 pts to 23.8 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MO-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +44.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026