Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -4.2 pts | 0.4% |
| 0.6 pts to 5.3 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.1 pts to 14.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.6 pts to 24.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.1 pts to 33.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.6 pts to 43.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.1 pts to 52.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.6 pts to 62.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.1 pts to 71.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.6 pts to 81.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 86.1 pts to 90.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MO-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +24.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +43.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026