Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -48.1 pts to -45.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -42.4 pts to -39.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.7 pts to -33.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.0 pts to -28.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -25.4 pts to -22.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.7 pts to -16.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -14.0 pts to -11.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -8.4 pts to -5.5 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -2.7 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.1 pts to 3.0 pts | 3.5% |
| 5.8 pts to 8.6 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MO-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +26.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026