Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -36.9 pts to -34.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -31.3 pts to -28.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -25.6 pts to -22.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -20.0 pts to -17.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -14.4 pts to -11.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -8.8 pts to -6.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -3.2 pts to -0.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.5 pts to 5.3 pts | 10.7% |
| 8.1 pts to 10.9 pts | 5.4% |
| 13.7 pts to 16.5 pts | 2.2% |
| 19.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MO-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 25.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +12.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +8.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026