Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 7.6 pts to 12.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.1 pts to 21.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.6 pts to 31.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.1 pts to 40.9 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.7 pts to 50.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.2 pts to 59.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.7 pts to 69.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 74.2 pts to 78.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.7 pts to 88.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 93.2 pts to 97.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 103 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MO-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +61.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +55.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026