Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -33.9 pts to -31.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -28.0 pts to -25.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.1 pts to -19.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -16.2 pts to -13.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.3 pts to -7.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -4.4 pts to -1.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 1.5 pts to 4.4 pts | 16.5% |
| 7.4 pts to 10.3 pts | 10.7% |
| 13.3 pts to 16.2 pts | 5.4% |
| 19.2 pts to 22.2 pts | 2.2% |
| 25.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MN-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 32% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +16.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +4.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026