Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -58.3 pts to -54.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -50.1 pts to -46.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -41.9 pts to -37.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -33.7 pts to -29.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -25.6 pts to -21.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -17.4 pts to -13.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -9.2 pts to -5.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.0 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 3.1 pts to 7.2 pts | 7.9% |
| 11.3 pts to 15.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 19.5 pts to 23.6 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MN-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +41.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +17.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026