Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -43.7 pts to -40.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -37.1 pts to -33.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -30.5 pts to -27.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -24.0 pts to -20.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -17.4 pts to -14.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -10.9 pts to -7.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -4.3 pts to -1.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.3 pts to 5.5 pts | 10.7% |
| 8.8 pts to 12.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 15.4 pts to 18.6 pts | 2.2% |
| 21.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MN-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 18.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +25.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +10.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026