Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 15.0 pts to 19.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.6 pts to 27.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.2 pts to 36.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.8 pts to 45.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.4 pts to 53.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.0 pts to 62.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.6 pts to 70.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.2 pts to 79.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.8 pts to 88.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 92.4 pts to 96.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 101 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MN-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +50.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +58.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026