Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 16.4 pts to 20.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.8 pts to 27.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.2 pts to 34.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.6 pts to 42.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.0 pts to 49.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.4 pts to 57.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.8 pts to 64.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.2 pts to 71.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.6 pts to 79.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 83.0 pts to 86.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 90.4 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MN-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +34.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +53.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026