Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 10.7 pts to 13.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.7 pts to 19.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.8 pts to 25.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.8 pts to 31.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.9 pts to 37.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.9 pts to 44.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.0 pts to 50.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.0 pts to 56.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.1 pts to 62.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.1 pts to 68.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MN-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 91.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +17.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +40.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026