Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -2.9 pts | 0.4% |
| 0.8 pts to 4.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.4 pts to 12.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 15.9 pts to 19.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.4 pts to 27.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.0 pts to 34.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.5 pts to 42.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.1 pts to 49.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.6 pts to 57.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.1 pts to 64.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.7 pts to 72.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · MN-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 90.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +13.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +34.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026