Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -34.6 pts to -31.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -28.7 pts to -25.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.7 pts to -19.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -16.7 pts to -13.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.8 pts to -7.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -4.8 pts to -1.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 1.1 pts to 4.1 pts | 16.5% |
| 7.1 pts to 10.1 pts | 10.7% |
| 13.0 pts to 16.0 pts | 5.4% |
| 19.0 pts to 22.0 pts | 2.2% |
| 24.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · MN-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 30.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +17.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +4.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026